Here I am again.
Are you there?
Not sure I have an audience at the moment, but it’s all good.
As promised, I’m using Sunshine and Olly as a proper blog: a written diary of my thoughts and ideas, but (hopefully) coherent in a way that makes them interesting to you.
(Should you exist.)
Therefore, consider this a trigger warning, as I’m working through some major issues, and they will seem scary.
Right now, we’re about as close to World War III as we’ve been in a long time.
(Likely in my lifetime, but certainly since the degradation of the Soviet Union in the 1980’s.)
Even then, the US and the USSR had settled into a comfortable, detente situation, b/c of the theory of MAD.
Mutually Assured Destruction, due to equal-enough nuclear capabilities.
That was way later in its respective century, though. (The 20th, as opposed to our 21st.)
Better historical parallels to our time are comparable years in the 20th Century.
A massive pandemic, after World War I, in the teens, in the lead up to the Great Depression and World War II.
Unfortunately, my main man Barack Obama actually kicked this off back in 2012, when he backed out of his Red Line comments in Syria over chemical weapon use, then left the country to Putin.
He also let Vlad take Crimea and Donbas from Ukraine in 2014, with no significant pushback.
Yes, it was 10 years ago, but a lifetime dictator has the benefit of patience.
Putin’s 2022 War in Ukraine was his follow up move, once he realized he now had the power to fully destabilize the world, and engage in a proxy war with the US and Europe.
The second domino to fall was Nagorno-Karabakh, the autonomous Armenian enclave in Azerbaijan, which was taken by force back in September.
Russia normally supported Armenia, but distracted in Ukraine, they let it happen, as Turkey is the regional superpower backing the Azeris.
Domino 3 is personal to me, for obvious reasons, when Iran attacked Israel by proxy, via Hamas on October 7th.
I, like most American Jews, despise the apartheid occupation in the West Bank, and support some sort of a 2-state-solution.
I also think Hamas committing human atrocities against fellow Jews, in the name of terrorizing the world, is a world class dick move.
I hate those guys.
But this was really Iran testing America, through its alliance with Israel.
An obvious axis has emerged in the world: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea.
They mean business, and have encouraged or supported territorial aggression in places like Central Africa and Yemen.
If China takes the opportunity to jump in further, (by taking Taiwan,) as Iran has done, and continues to do by pushing War in Lebanon, the world is truly fucked.
We can only hope Xi Jinping shows restraint.
But the other side of that axis is the US, Europe, Canada, Australia, Japan, and likely Saudi Arabia. (India is wishful thinking.)
Xi and Putin have made great strides in Latin America and Africa, by playing off of legitimate gripes against the Colonialist West.
Much of the world is not rooting for US, and India and Canada are openly tussling, making an Anti-axis less stable.
In fighting, as in War, a distracted, weakened opponent is seen as an opportunity.
China knows this.
Hell, their society practically wrote the book, via Sun Tzu.
Which is why I’m concerned.
We should all be.
Time to pray for peace, and hope the US and Europe can show enough fang to represent the Democratic world, and keep the autocrats from making any more major moves.
(Fingers crossed.)
Sunshine and Olly 
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